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The Last Bottleneck

The Half-Life of Innovation

Every breakthrough makes something abundant, and exposes what remains scarce. Fire freed us from darkness. Agriculture turned scarcity from season to season. Writing transformed knowledge from memory to record. The printing press, the steam engine, the computer, the internet: each innovation unleashed abundance, turning what was once rationed into what is now commonplace. Today, artificial intelligence shatters the final execution constraint. In its wake, a new scarcity emerges: judgment, discernment, taste, wisdom. The bottleneck is no longer what we can build. It is what we should.

Don't miss the future. It will arrive faster than you think. Since the invention of fire, innovation cycles have kept halving. With the internet and AI, we are now at breaking speed. Read the book, join the movement, and help shape what comes next.

Launched at G20 YEA 2026 · ViennaDr. h.c. Peter Goetz · Dr. Frédéric Pattyn
Dust jacket of The Last Bottleneck

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The Thesis

Every Breakthrough Makes Something Abundant.
And Exposes What Remains Scarce.

The long arc of human technology tells one story: every revolution builds the tools for the next, and every wave moves the bottleneck inward.

Fire gave us control of energy. Agriculture gave us control of biological production. Writing turned memory into record. The printing press, the steam engine, electricity, the computer, the internet: each innovation unleashed abundance, turning what was once rationed into what is now commonplace.

And each wave arrives faster. Fire endured half a million years. Agriculture eight thousand. The industrial revolution three centuries. The internet, a single generation. AI, barely a decade. This is the half-life of innovation: the inheritance compounds, and time compresses.

Published by the New Data Research Institute

The Long Arc

From Fire to Judgment

The long arc of human technology: ten revolutions from fire to AI, showing how each wave halves in duration and moves the bottleneck from survival to judgment
The long arc of human technology · the half-life of revolutions

With every revolution, the constraint moves closer to us. Survival became production, production became capital, capital became information, information became judgment. Today, artificial intelligence shatters the final execution constraint, and the bottleneck reaches human intention itself.

In its wake, a new scarcity emerges: judgment, discernment, taste, wisdom. Direction.

We can now do more, faster, with fewer resources than any generation in history. Yet the quality of our future depends increasingly on the quality of our intention. Technology compounds capability. It does not automatically compound wisdom.

The tools will keep changing. The discipline that outlasts them is human.

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